After 10,000 simulations of the Super Bowl, the best bet is not what you expect

Mahomes Super Bowl 58.

The Chiefs are scheduled to play the San Francisco 49ers Sunday in the Super Bowl. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)AP

Super Bowl 58: An unexpected best bet has been found

Super Bowl LVIII excitement continues to build, with the Chiefs and Niners set to dazzle fans in the NFL playoffs conclusion at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sunday, February 11, 2024. The sports betting landscape is ripe with predictions and odds.

Amidst the excitement, a surprising best bet has emerged, captivating the attention of bettors and going against the thoughts of many fans looking to back Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce to victory. This revelation, born from in-depth simulations and analyses, promises to add an intriguing twist to the anticipation surrounding the NFL’s big game on Sunday evening.

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Expert insights and odds

This expert analysis for Super Bowl LVIII comes directly from the data specialists at, a premier destination for sports betting predictions. Delve into the interactive widget below to uncover the latest odds and probabilities for the NFL’s marquee event featuring the Chiefs and 49ers, including the spread, total, and moneyline.

The advanced tool is designed to provide bettors with the most up-to-date information, ensuring you have all the insights needed for the most anticipated football showdown of the year at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

Game preview: Key details for Super Bowl LVIII

  • Teams: Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers
  • Date: Sunday, February 11, 2024
  • Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT
  • Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada

Betting odds for Chiefs vs. 49ers

Note: Clicking the odds above will direct you to BetMGM Sportsbook, known for offering competitive NFL odds. Odds are subject to change.

CMC Super Bowl.

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) is set to play a vital role in Dimers' best bet of the Super Bowl. (AP Photo/Scot Tucker)AP

Super Bowl best bet: Favorites predicted to win and cover

After simulating this matchup 10,000 times and then comparing the results to the odds available with the major sportsbooks, the best bet is 49ers -2 (-110).

The 49ers covered the spread in 58.2% of Dimers’ simulations, which equates to fair odds of -139, giving bettors a massive edge of 7% when taking this play.

“Our predictive model ran thousands of simulations on Super Bowl 58 to uncover probabilities and betting advantages that go beyond the provided odds,” detailed data analyst Greg Butyn, shedding light on the approach used to pinpoint the game’s most valuable bet.

“After comparing our findings with the latest sportsbook odds, we’ve identified where the true betting value resides. Interestingly, despite many fans taking the Chiefs, our model suggests that backing the 49ers at -2 is the standout bet for the big game.”

If you’re worried about the 49ers winning by exactly 1 or 2 points, then Dimers has also found an edge on San Fran at the moneyline, which you can get at -125 right now.

Further Super Bowl betting guides

As well as being able to bet on the result of the game, the final game of the season provides a whole lot of novelty props on offer, including the length of the national anthem, the color of the Gatorade shower, or even the result of the Super Bowl coin toss.

Final thoughts

With all predictions and bets, it’s essential to gamble responsibly and consult reputable sources. For the latest and most accurate information, always turn to trusted platforms when making your online betting decisions.
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